Why Yemen could split into two countries

 

Yemen, the poorest country in the Arab world, is facing a humanitarian catastrophe, with 80% of its population dependent on food aid, and dwindling water and oil reserves. The country is also torn apart by a civil war that pits the Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, against the forces loyal to President Hadi, recognized by the UN and supported by a Saudi-led coalition. The war has caused thousands of civilian casualties and widespread destruction of infrastructure. Could a division of Yemen into two states be a solution to end the conflict and the suffering of the Yemeni people?

A troubled history of unification and division

Yemen has a long and complex history of unification and division, reflecting its religious, cultural, and geographical diversity. The Zaydi Shiites, who follow a branch of Islam close to Sunni Islam, predominate in the northern highlands, while the Sunnis form the majority in the rest of the country. The north and the south were also influenced by different colonial powers: the Ottoman Empire and later the United Kingdom in the north, and the British Empire in the south.

In 1990, after years of rivalry and conflict, the two Yemeni states, the Yemen Arab Republic in the north and the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen in the south, merged into a single country, with Ali Abdullah Saleh, the leader of the north, as president, and Ali Salim al-Beidh, the leader of the south, as vice president. However, the unification was marred by economic and political problems, and the south attempted to secede in 1994, sparking a brief but bloody civil war that ended with the defeat of the southern forces and the consolidation of Saleh’s power.

Saleh ruled Yemen for more than three decades, until the popular uprising of 2011, inspired by the Arab Spring, forced him to step down and hand over power to his deputy, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, in 2012. The transition was supposed to lead to a new constitution and elections, but it was derailed by the resurgence of the Houthi movement, a Zaydi Shiite group that had fought six wars against Saleh’s government between 2004 and 2010, and that felt marginalized and discriminated by the new authorities.

In 2014, Saleh, instead of retiring, allied himself with the Houthis, whom he had fought in the past, and enabled them to take over the capital, Sanaa, and much of the north, forcing Hadi to flee to Saudi Arabia in 2015. The Saudi-led coalition, which includes the UAE and other Arab and Muslim countries, launched a military intervention in March 2015, hoping to defeat the Houthis and restore Hadi’s government, but the war has reached a stalemate and has worsened the humanitarian situation in the country.

The arguments for and against a division of Yemen

The idea of a division of Yemen into two states, or even more, has been raised by various actors and observers, as a way to end the war and address the grievances of the different regions and communities. The main proponents of this option are the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group that emerged in 2017 and that controls most of the south, including the port city of Aden, which is the interim seat of Hadi’s government. The STC claims that the south has been neglected and exploited by the north, and that it has the right to self-determination and independence, as it had before 1990.

The STC has also clashed with Hadi’s forces, which are nominally allied with the Saudi-led coalition, over the control of the south and the distribution of resources. In 2022, the STC and the Hadi government signed a power-sharing agreement, known as the Riyadh Agreement, under the auspices of Saudi Arabia, which aimed to form a new unity government and a joint military command, and to pave the way for a comprehensive political solution. However, the implementation of the agreement has been slow and fraught with difficulties, and the STC has not given up its separatist aspirations.

The supporters of a division of Yemen argue that it would reflect the historical, cultural, and religious realities of the country, and that it would allow each state to manage its own affairs and resources, without interference from the other. They also contend that it would reduce the violence and the humanitarian crisis, by creating clear boundaries and responsibilities, and by facilitating the delivery of aid and the reconstruction of the country.

The opponents of a division of Yemen, on the other hand, maintain that it would be a dangerous and unrealistic option, that would only exacerbate the conflict and the suffering of the Yemeni people. They point out that the country is not neatly divided along north-south lines, but rather has multiple and overlapping divisions and loyalties, such as tribal, regional, sectarian, and ideological. They also warn that a division of Yemen would create new sources of tension and instability, such as disputes over borders, oil and gas fields, water resources, and access to the sea. Moreover, they argue that a division of Yemen would not address the root causes of the war, such as corruption, mismanagement, inequality, and foreign interference, but rather would entrench them and make them harder to resolve.

A possible way forward

The question of a division of Yemen is not a new one, but it has gained more prominence and urgency in the context of the ongoing war and the humanitarian crisis. However, it is not a simple or straightforward one, as it involves complex and sensitive issues, such as identity, sovereignty, security, and development. It also requires the consent and participation of all the parties involved, both inside and outside the country, as well as the support of the international community.

A possible way forward could be to adopt a federal or confederal system, that would grant a high degree of autonomy and self-governance to the different regions of Yemen, while preserving the unity and integrity of the country. Such a system could be based on the outcomes of the National Dialogue Conference, a consultative process that took place in 2013 and 2014, and that proposed to divide Yemen into six federal regions, four in the north and two in the south. However, this proposal was rejected by the Houthis and the STC, who argued that it did not reflect the aspirations and interests of their constituencies.

Therefore, a new and inclusive dialogue is needed, that would involve all the stakeholders, including the Houthis, the STC, the Hadi government, the Saleh loyalists, the tribal leaders, the civil society, and the women and youth. This dialogue should aim to reach a consensus on the political structure and the constitutional framework of Yemen, as well as on the security arrangements and the economic and social development of the country. The dialogue should also be accompanied by a comprehensive and durable ceasefire, a lifting of the blockade and the restrictions on the movement of people and goods, and a scaling up of the humanitarian and reconstruction assistance.

The role of the international community, especially the UN, is crucial in facilitating and supporting this dialogue, as well as in monitoring and enforcing the ceasefire and the humanitarian access. The international community should also exert pressure on the regional and international actors, such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the United States, to stop their military involvement and their arms sales to the warring parties, and to respect the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Yemen. The international community should also provide political, financial, and technical assistance to the Yemeni people, to help them rebuild their country and their institutions, and to address the root causes of the conflict.

Conclusion

Yemen is a country that has been ravaged by war, poverty, and disease, and that faces the risk of a division into two or more states. However, a division of Yemen is not a viable or desirable solution, as it would create more problems than it would solve, and it would not meet the needs and the expectations of the Yemeni people. A better option is to pursue a political and peaceful settlement, that would respect the diversity and the unity of Yemen, and that would allow the country to recover and to prosper. This requires the engagement and the cooperation of all the parties, both inside and outside the country, as well as the support of the international community.