Is the U.S. Navy Ready for the Red Sea Threat?

 

The Red Sea is a vital waterway for global trade and security, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean. It is also a hotspot of conflict and instability, where Yemen’s Houthi rebels have been launching attacks on commercial and military vessels since November 2023, in response to Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. The U.S. Navy, along with its allies, has been trying to protect the shipping lanes and deter further aggression, but it faces a formidable challenge from the Houthis and their Iranian backers, who have been supplying them with drones and missiles. The U.S. Navy also has to contend with the rising power and ambition of China, which has been developing a large and diverse missile arsenal that could threaten the U.S. Navy’s dominance in the region and beyond. How well is the U.S. Navy prepared for these threats, and what does it need to do to adapt and innovate?

The Houthi Challenge

The Houthis are a Shiite rebel group that has been fighting the Saudi-led coalition and the internationally recognized government of Yemen since 2015. They control most of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, and have been receiving political and military support from Iran, which views them as a proxy force against its regional rivals. The Houthis have been using drones and missiles to attack Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. According to the U.S. Navy, the Houthis have launched at least 34 attacks on shipping since November 2023, targeting vessels from Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and other countries. Some of these attacks have also targeted U.S. Navy warships, such as the destroyer USS Mason, which was fired upon by Houthi missiles in December 2023.

The Houthi attacks pose a significant threat to the U.S. Navy and its allies, as they demonstrate the Houthis’ ability to conduct asymmetric warfare and exploit the vulnerabilities of conventional naval forces. The Houthis use low-cost and low-visibility drones and missiles, which are hard to detect and intercept by the U.S. Navy’s radar and missile defense systems, which are designed for high-end conflicts against peer or near-peer adversaries. The Houthis also use swarm tactics, launching multiple drones and missiles simultaneously or in rapid succession, to overwhelm the U.S. Navy’s defenses and increase the chances of hitting their targets. The Houthis have also shown a willingness to use suicide drones, which can evade countermeasures and cause more damage than conventional weapons. The Houthi attacks have caused casualties, injuries, and material losses for the U.S. Navy, as well as disrupted the flow of commerce and energy in the region.

However, these efforts have not been enough to stop or deter the Houthi attacks, which have continued despite the U.S.-led strikes and the diplomatic pressure. The U.S. Navy has also faced criticism for its reliance on expensive and limited missiles, such as the SM-2 and the Tomahawk, which cost roughly $2.4 million and $1.4 million each, respectively, to shoot down or destroy Houthi drones and missiles, which cost only a few thousand dollars each. Some analysts and officials have argued that the U.S. Navy needs to develop more cost-effective and versatile weapons, such as lasers, railguns, and electronic warfare, to counter the Houthi threat and save money and munitions for more serious conflicts.

The China Challenge

While the U.S. Navy is busy dealing with the Houthi threat in the Red Sea, it also has to face the growing challenge of China, which has been building up its military and economic power in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. China has been developing a large and diverse missile arsenal, which includes short-range, medium-range, intermediate-range, and intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as cruise missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. China has also been expanding its nuclear warhead stockpile, which is estimated to be around 500, with more in production to arm future delivery systems. China’s missile force is intended to deter and counter the U.S. and its allies, and to project power and influence in the region and beyond.

China’s missile arsenal poses a serious challenge to the U.S. Navy, as it could threaten its ships, bases, and assets in the region, and undermine its ability to operate freely and effectively. China’s missiles have long ranges, high speeds, high accuracy, and high maneuverability, which make them hard to detect, track, and intercept by the U.S. Navy’s defenses. China’s missiles also have multiple warheads, decoys, and penetration aids, which increase their lethality and survivability. These missiles could also be used for coercion and intimidation, as China has demonstrated in the past by firing missiles near Taiwan and Japan, or by conducting missile tests and exercises near disputed territories and waters.

The U.S. Navy has been trying to cope with the China challenge by modernizing its own missile force, and by enhancing its missile defense capabilities. The U.S. Navy has been developing new variants of its existing missiles, such as the SM-6, the SM-3, and the Tomahawk, to improve their range, speed, accuracy, and versatility. The U.S. Navy has also been pursuing new missile programs, such as the Conventional Prompt Strike, the Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile, and the Next-Generation Land Attack Weapon, to provide more options and flexibility for offensive and defensive operations. The U.S. has also been investing in new technologies, such as hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence, and cyber warfare, to gain an edge over China’s missile force.

Conclusion

The U.S. Navy is facing a complex and dynamic threat environment in the Red Sea and beyond, where it has to deal with the Houthi rebels and their Iranian backers, as well as China and its growing missile arsenal. The U.S. Navy is not well prepared for these threats, as it relies on expensive and limited missiles that are designed for high-end conflicts, not asymmetric warfare. The U.S. Navy also faces a resource and budget constraint, as it has to balance its competing priorities and requirements, and justify its spending and programs to the Congress and the public. It needs to adapt and innovate to deal with these threats and challenges, by developing more cost-effective and versatile weapons, such as lasers, railguns, and electronic warfare, and by increasing its presence and cooperation in the region, and working with allies and partners to ensure the freedom and security of navigation in the Red Sea and beyond. The U.S. Navy cannot afford to be complacent or unprepared, as the stakes are too high and the risks are too great. It must be ready for the Red Sea threat, and for any other threat that may arise.