Naval Aviation and Military AI: Lessons from History and Challenges for the Future

 

The history of warfare is marked by periods of radical transformation, when new technologies and ideas change the nature and conduct of military operations. One such period was the interwar years of the 20th century, when the United States and Japan competed for naval supremacy in the Pacific, and developed carrier aviation as a decisive capability for sea power. Another such period is the present day, when the United States and other countries are investing in artificial intelligence (AI) as a key enabler for modern warfare. This essay compares the naval aviation revolution in military affairs (RMA) in the Second World War with the current military AI innovation, and argues that the Pentagon can learn from the history of naval aviation, especially in terms of realistic experimentation, bureaucratic navigation, and visionary personnel, to harness the potential of AI for military purposes.

The US-Japan Interwar Competition in the Pacific

The First World War demonstrated the importance of naval power for global security and influence, and prompted the major powers to expand and modernize their fleets. However, the Washington Naval Treaty of 1922 imposed limits on the size and composition of the navies of the United States, Britain, Japan, France, and Italy, in order to prevent a costly and destabilizing arms race. The treaty also banned the construction of new battleships, which were the dominant platforms of naval warfare at the time, and restricted the conversion of existing ships into aircraft carriers, which were the emerging platforms of naval aviation. The treaty created a strategic dilemma for the United States and Japan, the two main rivals in the Pacific, as they sought to balance their naval capabilities and interests in the region. Japan, which had ambitions to expand its influence and control over China and Southeast Asia, felt constrained by the treaty and resented the US presence and dominance in the Pacific. The United States, which had interests and commitments in the Philippines, Hawaii, and other islands, felt challenged by Japan’s expansionism and aggression. Both countries recognized the potential of carrier aviation as a game-changing capability for naval warfare, and invested in the development and innovation of this new technology.

The US Navy’s Exploitation of Carrier Aviation

Carrier aviation, or the use of aircraft launched and recovered from ships at sea, offered several advantages for naval operations, such as mobility, flexibility, and concentration of force. Carrier-based aircraft could extend the range and reach of naval forces, conduct reconnaissance and surveillance, provide air cover and support, and strike targets on land and sea. However, carrier aviation also posed several challenges, such as the coordination and integration of air and sea operations, the protection and maintenance of carriers and aircraft, and the development and training of pilots and crews. The US Navy was able to exploit the advantages and overcome the challenges of carrier aviation through a series of experiments, exercises, and war games that tested and refined the operational concepts and tactics for carrier operations. For example, in 1929, the US Navy conducted a simulated attack on the Panama Canal, using carrier-based aircraft to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of long-range strikes. In 1931, the US Navy conducted the Fleet Problem XII, a large-scale exercise that pitted the carriers Lexington and Saratoga against the rest of the fleet, and showed the superiority and vulnerability of carrier forces. In 1934, the US Navy conducted the War Plan Orange, a war game that simulated a conflict with Japan, and revealed the importance and difficulty of securing bases and supply lines in the Pacific. These and other experiments, exercises, and war games enabled the US Navy to develop and improve its doctrine, organization, equipment, and training for carrier aviation, and to prepare for the eventual war with Japan.

The Role of Key Individuals in the Development of Carrier Aviation

The development and innovation of carrier aviation in the US Navy was not only a result of institutional and organizational factors, but also of individual factors, such as the vision, leadership, and influence of key personnel who championed and supported the cause of carrier aviation within the naval bureaucracy and culture. One such individual was Admiral William Moffett, who was the first chief of the Bureau of Aeronautics, and who advocated for the expansion and integration of naval aviation in the fleet. Moffett was instrumental in securing funds and resources for the construction and conversion of carriers, the procurement and development of aircraft, and the establishment and improvement of aviation facilities and schools. Moffett also promoted the cooperation and coordination of naval aviation with other branches and services, such as the Army Air Corps and the Marine Corps. Another such individual was Rear Admiral Joseph Reeves, who was the commander of the Aircraft Squadrons, Battle Fleet, and who pioneered the operational concepts and tactics for carrier operations. Reeves was responsible for organizing and conducting the experiments, exercises, and war games that demonstrated and refined the capabilities and limitations of carrier aviation. Reeves also trained and mentored a generation of naval aviators, such as Marc Mitscher and William Halsey, who would become the leaders and heroes of the Pacific War. A third such individual was Admiral Ernest King, who was the commander-in-chief of the US Fleet and the chief of naval operations during the Second World War, and who supported and implemented the strategic and operational use of carrier aviation in the war. King was a strong advocate of offensive and decisive actions against Japan, and employed carrier forces as the main instrument of naval power projection and sea control. King also oversaw the expansion and modernization of the US Navy, and the coordination and integration of naval operations with other services and allies.

Parallels and Lessons for Military AI Innovation

The naval aviation RMA in the Second World War offers some parallels and lessons for the current military AI innovation, which is also driven by technological and intellectual changes that have the potential to disrupt and transform military operations. AI, or the ability of machines to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as perception, reasoning, learning, and decision-making, can enhance and enable various aspects and functions of warfare, such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, command and control, targeting and engagement, logistics and maintenance, and training and education. However, AI also poses some challenges, such as the reliability and security of AI systems, the interoperability and integration of AI with other systems and platforms, and the development and retention of AI talent and expertise. The Pentagon can learn from the history of naval aviation, especially in terms of realistic experimentation, bureaucratic navigation, and visionary personnel, to harness the potential of AI for military purposes.